Model transferability for improved preparedness against emerging tree diseases

Recent emerging tree diseases such Ash dieback in the UK (Hymenoscyphus fraxineus) have caused significant environmental and economic damage. Devastating new diseases, such as Xylella in Europe, are a constant threat. Models developed to inform policy about how best to address these threats are largely bespoke and the general characteristics of models which facilitate transferability have not been fully explored. This PhD will use a range of modelling approaches to compare how predictions from models parameterised at one location perform in new locations, as well as across different disease species. Multiple model-performance criteria will be defined to test the impact of model transferability on the accuracy to estimate the outcome of different intervention strategies allowing for a quantification of the extent that transferability is possible in a way that is of direct relevance to DEFRA.

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